Tight Race Emerges in Latest Senatorial Survey by Arkipelago Analytics
A senatorial survey conducted by Arkipelago Analytics shows a tight race among several candidates, with Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, Raffy Tulfo, and Vico Sotto sharing the top position, each receiving 47% voter preference. These results suggest strong and evenly matched public support for the leading contenders.
Following closely are Robin Padilla, Loren Legarda, and Leni Robredo, who each gained 42% support. In the next group are Alan Peter Cayetano, Paolo “Pulong” Duterte, and Francis Escudero, with 39%. Several well-known political figures and personalities also remain competitive in the middle range, including Mark Villar, JV Ejercito, Rowena Guanzon, Juan Edgardo Angara, Nancy Binay, and Grace Poe, all registering 34%.
Further down the rankings are Manny Pacquiao, Jinggoy Estrada, and Vice Ganda, each with 28%. Ben Tulfo and Dingdong Dantes followed with 25%, while Bong Revilla, Mar Roxas, Francis Tolentino, Gringo Honasan, and Franklin Drilon each posted 22%.
A number of candidates landed in the lower mid-range, including Heidi Mendoza, Willie Revillame, Ralph Recto, and Vince Dizon with 19%, and Rex Gatchalian, Gibo Teodoro, Martin Romualdez, Phillip Salvador, and Benhur Abalos with 16%. Meanwhile, Jimmy Bondoc, Chel Diokno, and Bonifacio Bosita received 10%, while Antonio Trillanes, Vic Rodriguez, and Teddy Casiño recorded 7%. At the bottom of the survey are Teacher France Castro, Claire Castro, Ka Leody De Guzman, Doc Marites Mata, Liza Maza, and Apollo Quiboloy, each with 5%.
The survey was conducted from February 26 to March 6, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 2,637 adult respondents nationwide. The sample was carefully designed to represent all 18 regions of the country, including both urban and rural areas. The results have a margin of error of ±2% at a 96% confidence level for national figures and ±5% for regional estimates.
To ensure accuracy, the data was weighted based on official voter registration figures from COMELEC, reflecting a total of over 68 million registered voters. The distribution covered Metro Manila, Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, along with gender balance and socioeconomic classes, to better reflect the voting population.