The gap in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup is now the smallest OCTA Research has recorded between the two, as the undecided bloc grows to 26 percent
MANILA – Vice President Sara Duterte is still ahead of Naga City Mayor and former Vice President Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential showdown, but her lead has shrunk to just seven points, based on OCTA Research survey results made public on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
In OCTA’s third-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey, Duterte got 40 percent against Robredo’s 33 percent. Another 26 percent were undecided, picked neither or did not know whom to support, while 1 percent refused to answer.
It is the smallest gap OCTA has recorded between the two. Duterte led by 11 points in the first quarter and by nine points in the second quarter.
Since the start of the year, Duterte’s numbers have dropped from 46 percent to 40 percent. Robredo dipped slightly from 35 percent to 33 percent. The big gainer is the uncommitted bloc, which grew from 19 percent to 26 percent.
“The three-wave figures may suggest some softening in VP Duterte’s numbers and some growth in the uncommitted bloc; further waves would be needed to determine whether this reflects a sustained pattern,” OCTA said.
OCTA noted that Duterte’s lead is still outside the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, although the changes between the second and third quarters were mostly within or near that margin.
The country remains sharply split by region. Robredo leads in Metro Manila, 39 percent to 32 percent, while Duterte leads in the Visayas, 46 percent to 27 percent, and dominates Mindanao with 71 percent.
The survey was done through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults from September 28 to October 4, 2026.
By economic class, Robredo leads among Class ABC, 40 percent to 32 percent, while Duterte is ahead in Class D, 41 percent to 31 percent. In Class E, the two are statistically tied, with Robredo at 42 percent, up 11 points from the second quarter, and Duterte at 41 percent.